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Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Will Go Under 31.5 Points Against Minnesota

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been one of the most consistent scorers in the NBA, but tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves presents a tough challenge. With a points line set at 31.5, there are several key reasons why he may struggle to reach that mark.

Minnesota’s Elite Defense

The Timberwolves have been one of the top defensive teams this season, ranking among the top 5 in defensive rating. Even with Rudy Gobert out, Minnesota still has strong defensive pieces, particularly Naz Reid at center and Jaden McDaniels at power forward. Both players bring length and versatility, which could limit Shai’s ability to get clean looks.

Additionally, Mike Conley is a savvy veteran defender who can help disrupt Oklahoma City’s offensive flow, while Anthony Edwards has improved significantly on the defensive end and can apply pressure on the perimeter.

Lack of Supporting Cast for OKC

With Chet Holmgren out, along with Andre Mitchell and Donte DiVincenzo, the Thunder will have fewer offensive threats to help space the floor for Shai. This means the Wolves can key in on SGA defensively, sending double teams and forcing the ball out of his hands. Without Holmgren’s spacing and secondary scoring, Minnesota’s defense will have an easier time clogging the paint and contesting Shai’s drives.

Minnesota’s Pace Control

The Timberwolves play at a slower pace, ranking near the middle of the league in possessions per game. This could limit the number of shot attempts Shai gets, making it harder for him to reach 32+ points. If Minnesota can control the tempo and keep this a low-scoring, grind-it-out game, the under becomes an even better play.

Physical Defensive Matchups

Shai is an elite driver who relies heavily on attacking the rim and getting to the free-throw line. However, Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels are excellent rim protectors who can make it difficult for him to finish inside. If Shai has to settle for more mid-range jumpers, it could impact his efficiency and overall scoring output.

Final Prediction: Under 31.5 Points

With Minnesota’s elite defense, the absence of key OKC players, and the Wolves’ ability to slow down the pace, it’s tough to see Shai Gilgeous-Alexander having a monster scoring night. Expect him to contribute in other areas, but breaking 32 points against this defense is a tough ask.

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