Kevin Durant is one of the league’s best scorers, but taking the under on his 26.5-point prop in this matchup makes a lot of sense. Here are the key reasons why:

1. The Suns Are on the Road

Phoenix is playing on the road, and while Durant is still a lethal scorer anywhere, road games often mean slightly lower efficiency, fatigue from travel, and potential blowout risk if the Spurs struggle without their star.

2. Victor Wembanyama is Out – Easier Game, Less Needed from KD

With Victor Wembanyama ruled out, the Spurs are missing their best rim protector and defensive presence. While that may seem like an advantage for KD’s scoring, it also increases the chance that the Suns dominate early. If Phoenix builds a big lead, Durant’s minutes could be reduced, leading to a lower-scoring night.

3. Suns Have Multiple Scoring Options

Unlike past seasons where Durant had to do most of the heavy lifting, he’s now playing alongside Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. Both are capable of taking over offensively, meaning Durant doesn’t always have to force shots. If the game is lopsided, the Suns could spread the scoring more, limiting KD’s shot volume.

4. Recent Scoring Trends

Durant has been inconsistent in reaching 27+ points, especially in games where Phoenix isn’t pushed to compete for four quarters. If the Suns pull away early, we could see a game where KD finishes in the 22-25 point range, falling just short of the prop line.

5. Blowout Potential = Reduced Minutes

San Antonio is one of the worst teams in the league, and without Wembanyama, their defense takes a major hit. If the Suns control the game early, Durant may sit significant fourth-quarter minutes, which would significantly reduce his scoring opportunities.

Final Verdict

With Wemby out, the Suns playing on the road, multiple scoring options on Phoenix, and a likely blowout reducing KD’s minutes, under 26.5 points looks like the sharp play. If Phoenix builds a big lead, there’s little reason for Durant to go off for a massive scoring night.