Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia 76ers: Why Tyrese Maxey Goes Under 28.5 Points

The Golden State Warriors (32-27) face off against the Philadelphia 76ers (20-38) in what should be an interesting matchup with both teams dealing with injuries and lineup adjustments. While Tyrese Maxey has been a scoring machine for Philadelphia this season, there are strong reasons to believe he will finish under 28.5 points in this game. Let’s break it down.

1. Paul George’s Presence Changes Everything

Maxey has thrived as the primary scorer with Joel Embiid out, but with Paul George now in the lineup, his shot volume is expected to decrease. George is a high-usage player who can create his own offense, meaning Maxey won’t have to shoulder the entire scoring load.

In past games where Philadelphia had another offensive star to share touches, Maxey’s scoring dropped noticeably. Now, with PG13 taking on a significant role, it’s likely Maxey will see fewer shot attempts than in recent weeks.

2. Golden State’s Defensive Matchups

The Warriors may not be an elite defensive team overall, but they have strong individual defenders who match up well against Maxey:

Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody are both capable perimeter defenders who will make him work for every shot.

Draymond Green’s switchability gives the Warriors an elite option to disrupt Maxey’s drives.

If Jimmy Butler (GTD) plays, the Warriors gain another top-tier defender who can help limit Maxey’s efficiency.

Golden State’s defensive switching scheme is designed to force tough shots, which could lead to an inefficient night for Maxey.

3. Warriors’ Recent Defensive Form

Over the last 15 games, the Warriors have quietly improved on defense, ranking top 10 in Defensive Rating. This suggests they are playing more disciplined, especially against dynamic guards.

Maxey has struggled in matchups against teams that defend the perimeter well, and Golden State’s recent form makes this an even tougher test.

4. Maxey’s Performance vs. Elite Defenses

Throughout the season, Maxey has performed worse against teams that:

Slow the game down (limiting his transition opportunities).

Have elite defensive wings and guards who can switch effectively.

Force him into contested mid-range jumpers instead of letting him attack the rim freely.

Golden State checks all of these boxes.

5. Game Script: A Balanced Scoring Attack

With Paul George expected to be a focal point of the offense and other role players like Quentin Grimes and Kelly Oubre needing touches, Philadelphia doesn’t need Maxey to force 25+ shot attempts.

Additionally, if the Warriors control the tempo, this game could see fewer possessions, further limiting Maxey’s chances to rack up points.

Final Prediction: Maxey Under 28.5 Points

Unless Maxey has an ultra-efficient night from three, the combination of Paul George’s presence, Golden State’s defense, and a balanced 76ers offense makes it unlikely that he reaches 29 points. Expect him to fall somewhere in the 22-26 point range, making the under 28.5 points a strong play.

If you’re betting on this game, this is a prop worth considering!