Why James Harden Will Go Under 22.5 Points Against the Lakers

If you’re looking for a strong player prop bet in the upcoming Clippers vs. Lakers matchup, James Harden going under 22.5 points is a play that makes a lot of sense. Here’s a detailed breakdown of why Harden is unlikely to exceed this total based on recent trends, matchup factors, and game dynamics.

Recent Scoring Trends

Harden has not been a consistent high-volume scorer for the Clippers this season, often deferring to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George when they are on the floor. In his last 10 games, Harden has gone under 22.5 points in seven of them, averaging around 18-20 points per game. Over his last five games, he has only surpassed 22.5 points once, further reinforcing his tendency to stay below this number.

Shot Volume & Usage Rate

One of the biggest reasons Harden’s scoring has dipped is his reduced shot volume. He has attempted fewer than 15 shots in seven of his last ten games, which makes it difficult to reach 23+ points unless he has an extremely efficient night.

Additionally, with Kawhi Leonard active and playing a primary scoring role, Harden’s usage rate drops significantly. Even if Paul George sits out, Kawhi still commands the ball, and Harden has been more of a facilitator rather than a pure scorer.

Matchup vs. Lakers’ Defense

The Lakers have been one of the better teams at limiting scoring from opposing point guards. With defenders like Austin Reaves and Dorian Finney-Smith, they have the ability to contest Harden’s shots and force him into difficult situations. The Lakers also rank in the top 10 in limiting points to opposing guards, further strengthening the case for Harden to stay under 22.5 points.

Playmaking Over Scoring

A big part of Harden’s role on the Clippers has shifted toward playmaking. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 9+ assists, which means he’s looking to set up his teammates rather than aggressively hunting his own shot.

Pace of Play & Game Script

If Luka Dončić and LeBron James both play, this game could have a slower pace, limiting overall possessions and reducing scoring opportunities. On the other hand, if the game gets lopsided, there’s a chance Harden could see reduced minutes late in the fourth quarter, making it even tougher for him to hit the over.

Final Prediction: James Harden Under 22.5 Points

Taking all factors into account, the under 22.5 points for James Harden is a strong bet. Given his recent trends, lower shot volume, and the Lakers’ defensive presence, it’s unlikely he will exceed this total. Expect him to finish in the 18-20 point range, making the under a great value pick for sports bettors looking to capitalize on player props.

Best Bet: James Harden Under 22.5 Points Projected Points: 18-20 Confidence Level: 🔥🔥🔥 (Strong Play)

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